上周,國(guó)內(nèi)(nèi )公布3月經(jīng)濟(jì)及1季度(dù )GDP數(shù)據(jù),其中GDP同比增長(zhǎng)5.4%,大(dà )超市(shì )場(chǎng)預(yù)期(qī ),顯示在(zài )內(nèi)需(xū )刺激政策(cè )及外需搶出口背景下一季度(dù )經(jīng)濟(jì)大幅回暖。分(fèn )項(xiàng)上來(lái)看,3月投資、消費(fèi)及生產(chǎn)(chǎn )較2月均出現(xiàn)不同幅度的回升(shēng ),我(wǒ )國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處于筑底回升階段。往后(hòu )看,雖然近期中美貿(mào)易摩擦使(shǐ )得(dé )市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心(xīn )出口(kǒu )下行導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力過(guò)大(dà ),但中長(zhǎng)期維度來(lái)看貨幣及財(cái)政(zhèng )政策進(jìn)一(yī )步發(fā)力確(què )定性較強(qiáng),并有望帶動(dòng)(dòng )居民信(xìn )心回升及經(jīng)濟(jì)企穩(wěn)。不過(guò)這一過(guò)程需要一定時(shí)間,期間宏觀數(shù)據(jù)仍會(huì)面臨(lín )一定波動(dòng)。海外方面,3月零售數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)比升1.4%,高于市場(chǎng)預(yù)(yù )期的1.3%,顯示美(měi )國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍存(cún )在一定的韌性。后(hòu )續(xù)隨著本輪關(guān)稅大(dà )幅上調(diào),物價(jià)可能會(huì)受到進(jìn)一步?jīng)_擊,不過(guò)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)走弱可能會(huì)(huì )呈現(xiàn)一定的先升(shēng )后(hòu )降,后(hòu )續(xù)關(guān)注美(měi )國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)(jì )能否平穩(wěn)落地。降息預(yù)期(qī )方(fāng )面(miàn ),上周鮑威爾表示關(guān)稅(shuì )會(huì)對(duì)(duì )美(měi )國(guó)物價(jià)造成較大沖擊,而特朗普則表(biǎo )示美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)需要盡快降息并以解職(zhí )鮑威爾(ěr )作為(wéi )威脅。在(zài )此背(bèi )景下市場(chǎng)降息預(yù)期有所走弱,5月的(de )降息預(yù)期由19%降至(zhì )9%。
版權(quán)所有 ? 2025 青龍影院 保留所有權(quán)利