上周,國內(nèi)公布3月經(jīng)濟(jì)及1季度(dù )GDP數(shù)據(jù),其中GDP同比增長5.4%,大超市(shì )場預(yù)期,顯示(shì )在內(nèi)需刺激(jī )政(zhèng )策及外(wài )需搶出口背景(jǐng )下一季度(dù )經(jīng)濟(jì)(jì )大幅回暖。分(fèn )項(xiàng)上來看,3月投資、消(xiāo )費(fèi)及生產(chǎn)較2月均(jun1 )出現(xiàn)不同幅度的回(huí )升(shēng ),我國經(jīng)濟(jì)(jì )仍處于筑底回升(shēng )階段。往后看,雖然近期中美貿(mào)易摩擦使得市(shì )場擔(dān)心出口(kǒu )下行導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力過大,但中(zhōng )長期維度來看(kàn )貨幣及(jí )財(cái)(cái )政政策進(jìn)(jìn )一步發(fā)(fā )力(lì )確定性(xìng )較強(qiáng),并有望帶動(dòng)居民(mín )信心(xīn )回升及經(jīng)濟(jì)企穩(wěn)。不過這一過程需要一定時(shí)間(jiān ),期(qī )間宏觀數(shù)(shù )據(jù)仍會(huì)面臨(lín )一定波(bō )動(dòng)。海外(wài )方面,3月零售數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)比升1.4%,高于市場預(yù)(yù )期(qī )的1.3%,顯示(shì )美國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍(réng )存在一定的韌(rèn )性。后續(xù)隨(suí )著本輪關(guān)稅大幅上調(diào),物價(jià)(jià )可能會(huì)受到進(jìn)一步?jīng)_擊,不過隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)走弱可能(néng )會(huì)呈現(xiàn)一定的先(xiān )升后降,后續(xù)關(guān)注美國經(jīng)濟(jì)能否平穩(wěn)落地。降(jiàng )息預(yù)期方面,上周鮑威(wēi )爾表示關(guān)稅會(huì)(huì )對(duì)美國物價(jià)造成較大(dà )沖擊,而特朗普則表(biǎo )示美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)需要盡快降息(xī )并(bìng )以解(jiě )職鮑威爾作為威脅。在此背(bèi )景下(xià )市場降息預(yù)期有所走弱,5月的降息預(yù)期由19%降至9%。
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