中短期看,關(guān)(guān )稅(shuì )對(duì)國(guó)(guó )內(nèi)(nèi )經(jīng)濟(jì)(jì )形成一定壓(yā )制,短期內(nèi)債券利率(lǜ )預(yù)計(jì)(jì )會(huì)(huì )出(chū )現(xiàn)一定幅度的下行,但由于此前市場(chǎng)降息預(yù)期較為充分,疊加潛在的財(cái)政發(fā)力刺激消(xiāo )費(fèi)等政策,預(yù)計(jì)(jì )債市會(huì)(huì )出現(xiàn)一定的先下后上。拉長(zhǎng)周期來(lái)(lái )看,雖然對(duì)(duì )于利率上行的終點(diǎn)(diǎn )判(pàn )斷難度(dù )較大(dà ),但不論是居(jū )民端風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好下行(háng )帶來(lái)(lái )的配置壓力還(hái )是(shì )政府加杠桿需要(yào )的貨幣政策支持都會(huì)帶動(dòng)利(lì )率趨勢(shì)性下行,在此背景下一方面可以逢低進(jìn)行加倉(cāng),尤其關(guān)(guān )注長(zhǎng)端利率、信用債、轉(zhuǎn)債等波動(dòng)率更高的品(pǐn )種(zhǒng )。
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